Certainly, let's delve into the HUMI Model v3.0 with a thorough description of each graphical element and its representation:
1. Central Box:
- The central box represents the interaction space where the two parties (hunters, traders, etc.) consider engaging. It is the area where decisions are made, and the potential interaction is evaluated.
2. Dominant Thinking System ("1/2" and "2/1"):
- Inside the central box, "1/2" indicates areas where System 1 (intuitive and fast) thinking is dominant over System 2 (analytical and slow) thinking. Conversely, "2/1" indicates areas where System 2 thinking is dominant. This reflects the cognitive state of the parties when they are within the interaction space.
3. State Transition Arrows with "‡":
- The four large arrows, two pointing upwards and two downwards, marked with "‡", symbolize potential state transitions in the dominant thinking system. These are automatic responses triggered by significant changes in perceived probabilities, known as the Probability Effect (PE) and the Certainty Effect (CE).
4. Certainty Effect (CE) Threshold:
- The solid line bisecting the upper part of the central box indicates the threshold for the Certainty Effect. The expression "!1 ↑ 1 ↓ !1" signifies the transition from uncertainty to certainty or vice versa, impacting the dominant thinking system.
5. Probability Effect (PE) Threshold:
- The dashed line bisecting the lower part of the central box signifies the threshold for the Probability Effect. The expression "0 ↑ !0 ↓ 0" represents the change from zero probability to non-zero probability or the reverse, again affecting the dominant thinking system.
6. Equilibrium State Symbol ("⇌"):
- The "⇌" symbol represents each party's view of the current state and value of the equilibrium. This perception influences their decision-making process regarding engagement and strategy.
7. Value Range Indicators ("+" and "−" Signs):
- The larger "+" and "−" signs on the outside of the central box indicate the range of values assigned by each party to potential items for exchange. This range includes both the Value of items held for Use (personal value) and Trade (exchange value).
8. Inventory and Risk Labels:
- Beneath each figure (representing a party), there are labels for 'Inventory' and 'Risk Seek,' along with numbers. These labels quantify the items each party has available for Use and Trade and their propensity to take risks or seek gains through the interaction.
9. Equilibrium Strategies:
- At the bottom of the figure, a list of 'Equilibrium Strategies' is provided, outlining the potential approaches each party may take regarding the equilibrium: Maintain/Neutral, Grow/Gain, or Shrink/Loss.
10. Plus ("+") and Minus ("−") Value Extremes:
- The extreme values indicated by the larger "+" and "−" signs suggest the highest and lowest possible outcomes from the interaction, reflecting the full spectrum of risk and reward.
The HUMI Model v3.0 is a visual and conceptual map of the interaction space between two decision-making entities. It captures the fluidity of their cognitive states, the evaluation of risks and rewards, and the strategic considerations regarding the maintenance, expansion, or reduction of equilibrium. Each graphical element serves to articulate the complex dynamics at play when individuals or groups engage in decision-making under uncertainty and risk.
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This is a very simple model, intentionally. The goal is a model that is only as complex as required to provide a general solution to many observations. Is it too simple, too complex or altogether wrong? I am open to collaboration and asking for help from a team that has an interest to study this question further. I bring an open mind that is typically more intuitive and rational than this character.
There is a HUMI Formula for this model
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